Cambodia is scheduled to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status on 19 December 2029, following the United Nations General Assembly's decision for an extended five-year preparatory period. Graduation is a milestone of development success, while it also withdraws trade preferences, WTO flexibilities and access to LDC-specific finance on a known calendar. Existing analysis by UNDP and the Ministry of Planning estimates that, without timely response, more than 165,000 workers — the majority of them women — could be at risk of unemployment and around 432,000 people at risk of falling into poverty, with impacts concentrated in the garment, footwear and travel goods, milled rice and bicycle sectors.

At the same time, climate change is already reshaping livelihoods in the same provinces and sectors: agriculture and labour productivity are the principal impact channels, and the workers and households most exposed to graduation's trade effects substantially overlap with those most exposed to floods, drought and heat. Analysing — and managing — the two transitions together offers potential for strengthened resilience and greater developmental synergies. The National Social Protection Policy Framework 2024–2035 provides the sector's strategic frame under the leadership of the National Social Protection Council; the Government plans to complete its Smooth Transition Strategy (STS), led by the Ministry of Planning, by 2027; and Cambodia's NDC 3.0 names social protection, for the first time, as a means of strengthening resilience and promoting a just transition.  This research will support these vital initiatives.

To support this agenda, ESCAP has jointly commissioned an analytical study, implemented by the Economic Policy Research Institute (EPRI), in close coordination with GS-NSPC, national counterparts and GIZ. The study is aligned with ESCAP's regional CRISP framework (Climate Resilience through Integrated Social Protection) and is designed so that each of its outputs serves the Government's own processes — particularly  the STS and the implementation of the NSPPF 2024–2035.

Purpose

The study is at its inception stage: the literature review and analytical framework are well advanced, and EPRI is finalizing the inception report (Output 1). This is the stage at which counterpart guidance has the greatest influence — on scope, priorities, data arrangements and the calendar — before the analytical design is fixed. The inception meeting convenes GS-NSPC and the key national and development partners to introduce the study formally under GS-NSPC's leadership, gather that guidance, and establish the coordination arrangements for the six-month workplan.  GS-NSPC is respectfully requested to convene the meeting, with Management presiding, reflecting the Council's ownership of the study and its outputs.

Objectives and expected outcomes

The meeting is expected to deliver six concrete outcomes: (i) a shared understanding, endorsed by the chair, of the study's objectives, scope and outputs; (ii) guidance from GS-NSPC and line ministries on national priorities, including alignment with the STS calendar and the NSPPF; (iii) agreed coordination arrangements — focal points in GS-NSPC and participating ministries, and the rhythm of technical exchanges; (iv) agreement in principle on data access needed for the quantitative work (national survey microdata; programme administrative data; registry and social security data as appropriate); (v) counterpart input to the selection of the rice-sector sub-national case study region and the consultation plan; and (vi) a confirmed calendar of milestones — inception report validation, Phnom Penh consultations, the national futures workshop and the launch. These inputs will be reflected directly in the inception report submitted for validation.

Key topics for presentation and discussion

Four topics structure the meeting. First, the project overview: background, objectives, scope, the seven outputs and the workplan. Second, the evidence base and analytical framework: headline findings of the literature review — what is established about graduation's and climate change's compounding impacts on Cambodia's workers and households, and about the social protection system's demonstrated response capacity — and the integrated framework that will guide the analysis. Third, the diagnostic and data agenda: what the study will assess about system readiness, and the data and access arrangements this requires. Fourth, alignment and calendar: how each output feeds the STS process and NSPPF implementation, and the schedule of consultations and validation points.

Format and participants

The format is a half-day, in-person meeting in Phnom Penh convened by GS-NSPC and presided over by GS-NSPC Management, with hybrid connection available for ESCAP and other remote participants. The suggested participation (approximately 20–25 participants): GS-NSPC technical departments; National Committee for Cambodia’s Graduation as a Least Developed Country, Ministry of Economy and Finance (General Department of Budget and General Department of Policy), Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training (MLVT), National Social Security Fund, Ministry of Environment, National Committee for Disaster Management, Ministry of Planning – Department of Identification of Poor Households, National Institute of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Ministry of Social Affairs, Veterans and Youth Rehabilitation, National Social Assistance Fund, UHC Secretariat, ESCAP, GIZ, UNDP, ILO, UNICEF and WFP. Working language English, with Khmer-language support.

Follow-up

The inception report (Output 1) will incorporate the meeting's inputs — scope refinements, coordination arrangements, data-access steps, case-study selection and the agreed calendar — and will be submitted to GS-NSPC, ESCAP and GIZ for validation, completing the inception phase of the assignment. Additional consultations with key stakeholders will be conducted, as necessary, to gather further insights, clarify outstanding issues, and inform the preparation and implementation of the project.